⚡ Intelligence Events Log 4,162
Seizures · Designations · Policy Changes · Infrastructure
Cuba Noticias Fin de Semana II (16 de mayo de 2026).
📎 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM8OxYE81Ks
Round Table, Petroleum Research Center: Bets on energy sovereignty. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.
📎 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wF84LR7yGU
Fuel shortages are the main cause of blackouts in Cuba. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.
📎 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLTwxV54wXU
Mode C scheduled run 1618UTC — no browser connected, live AIS maps unreachable from sandbox. MGR fleet (CAMILO CIENFUEGOS, VILLA CLARA, ORIENTE, etc.) positions not live-verified this scan cycle. WebSearch fallback used for all maritime/air intelligence. Mode A available for interactive deep-dive. Source: scan methodology 2026-05-16 1620UTC
📎 Source: scan://mode-c-scheduled-2026-05-16-1620
Cuba declared 2026 "Year of Defense Preparation." Civilian military drills with rifles, drones, anti-tank mines intensified. Envoy Lianys Torres Rivera: Cuba bracing for US invasion. FM Bruno Rodríguez: any US action would cause "true humanitarian catastrophe, a bloodbath." Díaz-Canel to NBC: "if we need to die, we will die." Cuba UN envoy Soberón Guzmán declared readiness for military response. Trump: Cuba must "come to us." Source: The Hill/Al Jazeera/Axios 2026-05-16
📎 Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/5880004-cuba-top-diplomat-us-red-lines/
Trump admin renewed $100M humanitarian aid offer to Cuba, distributed via Catholic Church. Cuba mulling: insists aid must cover fuel/food/medicine. CIA Ratcliffe May 14 delivered terms: meaningful reforms required. Díaz-Canel red line: no political concessions, will not resign. Negotiations stalled — US demands Díaz-Canel removal. Trump: Cuba "completely failed nation." Source: CBS News/Al Jazeera/US News 2026-05-16
📎 Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-power-grid-collapses-eastern-provinces-major-blackout/
Cuba national power grid RESTORED May 16 after 22h blackout (65% territory affected May 14-15). Oil reserves exhausted per Energy Minister de la O Levy. Antonio Guiteras (largest plant) remains offline. Scheduled blackouts persist. Cuba considering US $100M aid offer via Catholic Church. Source: AFP/AP/Al Jazeera 2026-05-16
📎 Source: https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/05/16/world/americas-emea/cuba-power-grid-back-online-after-huge-blackout/2345381
📅 2026-05-16
POLICY_CHANGE
OFAC/US Treasury
OFAC General License 134B expired 2026-05-16 at 12:01 a.m. EDT. GL 134B had authorized limited transactions involving Russian-origin crude and petroleum products loaded before April 17, 2026. Its expiration closes the last wind-down window for Russian oil to Cuba. UNIVERSAL (IMO 9384306, ~270K bbls diesel) is now operating in a full-prohibition environment with no GL coverage. Any Cuba delivery now constitutes a primary OFAC violation. GAESA wind-down GL expires June 5 2026.
📎 Source: https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/ofac-issues-general-license-134b-extending-authorization-for-certain-russia-orig
Cuban envoy warns Cuba preparing for possible US invasion amid stalled negotiations. Cuba rejects removal of Diaz-Canel as negotiating condition. US demands: prisoner release, Starlink access, compensation for confiscated assets. Cuba demands: end EO 14404 energy blockade. US-Cuba talks described as very preliminary.
📎 Source: https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/329377
Air China CA865 MAD→HAV Boeing 787-9 scheduled 2026-05-16 18:50 local (FR24 HAV arrivals board). First Chinese flag-carrier widebody link to HAV in this registry. Madrid is likely tag-stop / 5th-freedom. Significant against backdrop of Chinese solar financing for Cuba (CNN 2026-05-13) and CNS Silk Road Ark Caribbean deployment. China-Cuba deepening across maritime + air + energy.
📎 Source: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/hav/arrivals
📅 2026-05-15
POLICY_CHANGE
Cuba accepts US $100M humanitarian aid (May 15) via Catholic Church — fuel food medicines. Unprecedented diplomatic shift under Trump. Diaz-Canel accepted after Cuba declared total fuel exhaustion.
📎 Source: WebSearch/VesselFinder/TASS/CBS/MercoPress Mode-A 2026-05-17
DOJ preparing criminal indictment of Raul Castro Ruz for 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown (4 Cuban-Americans killed). Charges: crimes against humanity + narco trafficking. Expected filing ~May 20 2026.
📎 Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/
DOJ (Miami prosecutors) preparing to unseal criminal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro on May 20, 2026 — charges related to 1996 downing of two Brothers to the Rescue planes, killing four Cuban-Americans. First criminal charge against a sitting/former Cuban leader.
📎 Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/doj-pushing-indict-raul-castro-1996-downing-civilian-planes-official
US DOJ seeking criminal indictment of former Cuban President/Defense Minister Raul Castro Ruz (94) for the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft over Florida Straits, killing four men (Costa, Alejandre, de la Pena, Morales). Indictment expected unsealed Miami May 20 2026. Context: Ratcliffe HAV visit (May 14), USD 100M aid negotiations, total fuel crisis.
📎 Source: https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/3809790/
Cuba social militarization escalating: 1,133 protests in April 2026 (+29.5% vs Apr 2025). Police violently suppressed protesters in Havana Playa district, 14+ arrests May 13. US Embassy warns of security risks in Cuba amid blackouts and protests. Regime shifted to 'operational phase of direct control over civilian spaces' per analysts — 31 security/defense/repression events in March 2026, +240% vs February.
📎 Source: https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/329187
Cuba national power grid collapses May 14-15 2026: eastern provinces fully blacked out. Record deficit: 2,113 MW shortfall (1,230 MW available vs 3,350 MW demand). Energy Minister: 'absolutely no fuel, no oil, no diesel.' UNIVERSAL tanker still adrift NW Atlantic with 270K bbls diesel — has not arrived. Havana blackouts exceed 24 consecutive hours. US $100M aid offer accepted as emergency measure.
📎 Source: https://www.npr.org/2026/05/14/nx-s1-5822583/cuba-blackout
Cuba's Díaz-Canel accepts US $100M humanitarian aid offer (May 14-15 2026): fuel, food, medicine via Catholic Church. CIA Dir Ratcliffe HAV visit May 14 linked — first US humanitarian deal since 2026 Cuban energy crisis peak. Cuba conditions: 'universally recognized humanitarian practices' with no demand for regime reform. Unprecedented US-Cuba diplomatic engagement concurrent with record 2,113 MW power deficit.
📎 Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-power-grid-collapses-eastern-provinces-major-blackout/
UNIVERSAL (IMO 9384306, Sovcomflot, EU/UK/US sanctioned) confirmed AIS-dark in NW Atlantic with 10.0m loaded draught (~270K bbls diesel). ETA May 20 FOR ORDER. Cuba declared "absolutely no fuel" May 14. OFAC GL134a bars Russian oil to Cuba but vessel expected to attempt delivery under sanctions evasion. Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich escorted vessel through English Channel April. 9-day AIS blackout consistent with sanctions-evasion approach.
📎 Source: https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-05-06-u1-e208933-s27061-nid328209-petrolero-ruso-universal-permanece-deriva-confi
📅 2026-05-15
UNKNOWN_CONTACT
🚢 Mode A live-AIS sweep 15-May 17:30 UTC
Cuba Traffic Intel — Mode A Chrome MCP
Mode A live-data scan-methodology entry. Live-sweep results: (1) Matanzas oil terminal harbour essentially idle — only 2 small dots at Dubrock area; (2) Santiago de Cuba harbour effectively dormant — 1 vessel visible; (3) Cienfuegos refinery/bay has commercial cluster of 4 anchored + 3 tugs/pilots; (4) Havana inner basin shows 3-5 commercial dots; (5) Mariel naval pier sparse (2 commercial dots); (6) Florida Straits commercial transit corridor normal volume; (7) No visible foreign warship in any of the three naval base zones; (8) No military-flagged aircraft over Cuba mainland at scan time (BLKCAT6 the sole active US ISR sortie, operating in Gulf of Mexico off Florida). MGR vessel public AIS feeds confirmed dark (VesselFinder MMSI 404). Live AIS + airport boards confirm the broader picture: Cuba commercial port traffic visibly suppressed; sanctioned-state air shuttles continuing.
📎 Source: https://www.marinetraffic.com/
📅 2026-05-15
FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT
🚢 SAM554 C-40B Clipper (USAF 89AW) — CIA Director Ratcliffe HAV mission
US Department of State
👤 Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz
CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived Havana 14-May aboard USAF SAM554 (C-40B Clipper, 89th Airlift Wing) from Joint Base Andrews. Met top Cuban officials including Raúl Castro's grandson, delivered Trump message on engagement preconditions. Only the second confirmed CIA director visit to Cuba since the 1959 revolution. Cuban regime publicly disclosed the meeting 14-May. Simultaneous F-5N Tiger II HAV overflight reported same day
📎 Source: https://abcnews.com/International/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-meets-top-cuban-officials/story?id=132981976
MQ-4C Triton BLKCAT6 (reg 169806, hex AE7817) caught live on ADS-B Exchange at 27.075°N -85.094°W FL469 SW-bound in Gulf of Mexico — second BLKCAT6 Cuba ISR sortie observed within the day. Sustained US-Navy high-altitude ISR loiter pattern continues the ≥25-sortie-since-Feb-4 tempo reported by CNN.
📎 Source: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae7817
📅 2026-05-15
POLICY_CHANGE
🏢 US humanitarian aid $100M offer to Cuba
US Department of State
👤 Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez
Secretary Rubio publicly disclosed 8-May that the US offered Cuba $100M in humanitarian aid; Cuban FM Bruno Rodríguez initially denied receipt (12-May), then Cuban president Díaz-Canel called the offer 'inconsistent and paradoxical' (14-May) and said Cuba would consider it only if 'free of political maneuvering', urging sanctions relief instead. Aid offer is contemporaneous with the energy crisis declaration and the SAM554 Ratcliffe Havana visit on 14-May.
📎 Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-05-14/cuba-mulls-us-offer-of-100-million-in-aid-but-wary-of-trumps-motiv
📅 2026-05-15
CRIME_EVENT
🏢 Operation Southern Spear narco-vessel strike (May 5)
US Joint Task Force Southern Spear
USSOUTHCOM/Joint Task Force Southern Spear executed a lethal kinetic strike against a drug-trafficking vessel in Caribbean waters on 5-May 2026, killing two suspected narco-traffickers. Carried out under Gen. Francis L. Donovan's command. Cumulative campaign tally as of 8-May: at least 58 strikes on 59 vessels, 194 killed.
📎 Source: https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2026/05/05/operation-southern-spear-southcom-strikes-drug-boat-kills-two-traffic
📅 2026-05-15
INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE
🏢 Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant
Cuba Ministry of Energy and Mines
👤 Antonio Guiteras
Antonio Guiteras 9th malfunction of 2026: disconnected from National Electric System at 04:58 UTC 14-May after a boiler water leak. Plant trip cascaded into partial grid collapse at 06:09, cutting power to central and eastern Cuba (Ciego de Ávila→Guantánamo). Repair estimate 3–4 days; only ~5 days since prior reconnection on May 9 after 90-hour repair. Plant has not had comprehensive maintenance since 2010 (15+ years).
📎 Source: https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/329234
Mode A enrichment. Live VesselFinder port-call history for UNIVERSAL (IMO 9384306) shows last port As Suways (Suez) Anchorage Egypt — ATD 2026-03-05 — with multiple Suez-area anchorage stops Feb 5-6/6-7/Mar 4. Cargo currently aboard most likely loaded via Gulf/Middle East transit through Suez, not direct from Baltic. New layer to shadow-fleet picture.
📎 Source: https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9384306
Mode A correction. Live VesselFinder AIS shows SEA HORSE (IMO 9262584) UNDER WAY at 10.6 kn in West Mediterranean, draught 11.0 m fully loaded, ETA Valletta Malta 2026-05-16 11:00. Last port Port-Kamsar Guinea (ATD 2026-05-03). CONTRADICTS prior WebSearch note that placed it in Caribbean/Trinidad/Venezuela per March 2026 press. Note corrected. Lesson: Mode C WebSearch fallback cannot catch stale-press divergence.
📎 Source: https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9262584
Conviasa V03492 CCS→HAV A340-600 YV3535 scheduled HAV arrival 2026-05-15 15:30 local (FR24 HAV arrivals board live). Same-day return V03493 17:30. 3rd round-trip in 7 days within a confirmed 5-rotation-in-14-day sanctioned shuttle (8/13/15/20/22 May). OFAC SDN operator. Live: flightradar24.com/data/flights/v03492.
📎 Source: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/v03492
📅 2026-05-15
FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT
🏢 US Navy MQ-4C Triton BLKCAT6 (reg 169806) — Cuba ISR sortie LIVE
MQ-4C Triton BLKCAT6 (US Navy reg 169806, hex AE7817) caught LIVE on ADS-B Exchange 2026-05-15 14:40 UTC at 27.827°N -83.711°W (Gulf of Mexico ~80nm W of Tampa), FL470, GS 250 kt, track 234° SW toward Cuba/Yucatán Channel, squawk 1200. Departed NAS Jacksonville/Mayport. Direct evidence the CNN-documented 25-since-Feb ISR tempo is sustained today. Live: globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae7817.
📎 Source: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae7817
Scan methodology note (2026-05-15 14:13 UTC). Cuba Traffic Intel scan executed in Sandbox-only Mode C: no visual browser tool, no host `open` for live MarineTraffic/VesselFinder/FlightRadar24/ADS-B Exchange map sweeps. Sections 1A–1F live map analysis NOT possible; substituted by ~40 targeted WebSearches across all Section 2 topic groups, per-tracked-vessel/aircraft WebSearch fallback, and structured-format note updates. Human-in-loop required to confirm vessel-by-vessel AIS positions for ANATOLY KOLODKIN, UNIVERSAL, SEA HORSE, and to detect unknown contacts on Cuba's coastal approaches. Air-side gap: no direct FR24/ADS-B Exchange enumeration of HAV/VRA/SCU/HOG/CFG/CMW/SNU/MUSA boards this scan; per-aircraft notes drawn from press OSINT. Any subsequent scan with browser tools should reconcile against this baseline.
Cuba's Ministry of Finance and Prices deregulated foreign-currency fuel prices effective 2026-05-15. Service stations may now set their own prices based on supplier, shipping, route, insurance, and global-market costs. Pre-deregulation official dollarized cap was just over $1/L with a 20L/person ration. Informal market price surged from 700-1,500 CUP (Jan) to ~6,000 CUP/L ($12/L) by May. Analysts flag GAESA capture risk as the military conglomerate dominates state-station retail. Source: cubaheadlines 329139, energynews.oedigital 2026-05-12
📎 Source: https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/329139