UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE // FOR OFFICIAL USE

Cuba Traffic Intelligence Report — 2026-05-20 0821UTC

Generated: 2026-05-20 17:56 UTC

Executive Summary

🚨 HISTORIC: DOJ indicts Raúl Castro Ruz TODAY at Miami Freedom Tower — first Cuban leader charged by US | 🛢️ PETION 87d AIS dark draught 11.2m CRITICAL · MARIA CRISTINA 126d dark CRITICAL · SANDINO 21d dark 10kn · UNIVERSAL 14d dark FOR ORDER | ✈️ Conviasa (sanctioned) V03492 lands HAV | ⚡ Cuba power grid collapse ongoing | 🔒 34 open pattern alerts

MARITIME: PETION (9295098, OFAC) 87d AIS dark draught 11.2m fully loaded dest CUCFGOS — approaching Cienfuegos | MARIA CRISTINA (9502453) 126d dark longest gap in fleet last port Havana Dec 4 2025 very light draught | SANDINO (9441178) 21d dark Caribbean Sea actively underway 10.0kn | UNIVERSAL (9384306) 14d dark FOR ORDER GL134B expired May 18 draught 10.0m | VILMA Bahía de Jagua 0.2kn approaching Cienfuegos refinery | NICOS IV moored Mariel La Boca dock | ANATOLY KOLODKIN (9610808) North Russia ballast post-delivery | DEYNA (9299903 triple-sanctioned) off South Africa draught 14.0m FOR ORDERS | AIR: Conviasa V03492 (sanctioned operator) arrived HAV | Air China CA865 arrived HAV commercial | PERSONS: DOJ indictment of Raúl Castro Ruz EXECUTED today May 20 Miami Freedom Tower — Acting AG Blanche + FBI Dep Dir Raia ceremony | Havana protests 5+ consecutive nights ongoing | 1,260 political prisoners record (Prisoners Defenders May 2026) | SANCTIONS: GAESA + Lastres + Moa Nickel EO 14404 May 7 active | NARCO: SOUTHCOM Operation Southern Spear 189 kills May 5 Caribbean | INFRA: Cuba power grid full eastern collapse May 16 ongoing | Cuba fuel-price deregulation May 15 | MODE A scan 2026-05-20 | 9 pattern alerts updated | 34 open total | 57 vessels 17 aircraft 783 persons in registry

OSINT scan 2026-05-20 0821UTC — 36 oil/cargo, 21 MGR military (5 CRITICAL); 17 sanctioned, 23 critical-risk; 405 vessel mvmts. Air: 17 aircraft tracked (9 mil, 4 sanctioned), 34 open pattern alerts (12 CRITICAL). | 🚨 HISTORIC: DOJ indicts Raúl Castro Ruz TODAY at Miami Freedom Tower — first Cuban leader charged by US | 🛢️ PETION 87d AIS dark draught 11.2m CRITICAL · MARIA CRISTINA 126d dark CRITICAL · SANDINO 21d dark 10kn · UNIVERSAL 14d dark FOR ORDER | ✈️ Conviasa (sanctioned) V03492 lands HAV | ⚡ Cuba power grid collapse ongoing | 🔒 34 open pattern alerts | MARITIME: PETION (9295098, OFAC) 87d AIS dark draught 11.2m fully loaded dest CUCFGOS — approaching Cienfuegos | MARIA CRISTINA (9502453) 126d dark longest gap in fleet last port Havana Dec 4 2025 very light draught | SANDINO (9441178) 21d dark Caribbean Sea actively underway 10.0kn | UNIVERSAL (9384306) 14d dark FOR ORDER GL134B expired May 18 draught 10.0m | VILMA Bahía de Jagua 0.2kn approaching Cienfuegos refinery | NICOS IV moored Mariel La Boca dock | ANATOLY KOLODKIN (9610808) North Russia ballast post-delivery | DEYNA (9299903 triple-sanctioned) off South Africa draught 14.0m FOR ORDERS | AIR: Conviasa V03492 (sanctioned operator) arrived HAV | Air China CA865 arrived HAV commercial | PERSONS: DOJ indictment of Raúl Castro Ruz EXECUTED today May 20 Miami Freedom Tower — Acting AG Blanche + FBI Dep Dir Raia ceremony | Havana protests 5+ consecutive nights ongoing | 1,260 political prisoners record (Prisoners Defenders May 2026) | SANCTIONS: GAESA + Lastres + Moa Nickel EO 14404 May 7 active | NARCO: SOUTHCOM Operation Southern Spear 189 kills May 5 Caribbean | INFRA: Cuba power grid full eastern collapse May 16 ongoing | Cuba fuel-price deregulation May 15 | MODE A scan 2026-05-20 | 9 pattern alerts updated | 34 open total | 57 vessels 17 aircraft 783 persons in registry

Threat Board — Open CRITICAL / HIGH Alerts

CRITICAL Recurring HAV↔CCS state shuttle
STATE_AIR_PARTNER_SHUTTLE · PLN001 · x18 · 2026-05-20 08:17

Conviasa YV3535 (A340-642) confirmed HAV↔CCS round trips on May 13 and May 15, 2026. V03492/V03493 flight numbers active. Sanctioned Venezuelan state carrier maintaining high-frequency Havana–Caracas shuttle despite OFAC sanctions.

CRITICAL Cuba grid Guiteras outage cycle — 9th 2026 outage (May 14 boiler water leak) + TOTAL FUEL EXHAUSTION
INFRASTRUCTURE_INCIDENT · x16 · 2026-05-20 08:17

Cuba energy crisis deepening as of 2026-05-20: 20-22h/day blackouts across Havana. Protests in 12+ municipalities including Guanabacoa, Marianao, Playa, Luyanó. Blackouts worst in decades. Protests ongoing: crowds blocking roads, burning rubbish, chanting for power. Summer 2026 forecast as hottest political crisis since July 2021.

CRITICAL UNIVERSAL (270K bbl diesel) adrift NW Atlantic — GL 134B expired today
SHADOW_FLEET_ROUTING_CORRECTION · UNIVERSAL · x7 · 2026-05-20 08:17

UNIVERSAL (270K bbl diesel, Sovcomflot, 9384306): 14 days AIS dark in NW Atlantic as of 2026-05-20. Draught 10.0m. Destination FOR ORDER. ETA listed May 20 (today). GL 134B expired May 18 — vessel in legal limbo. No safe jurisdiction for delivery with active US OFAC enforcement.

CRITICAL DOJ Indicts Raúl Castro — Freedom Tower Miami May 20 2026
DOJ_INDICTMENT_IMMINENT · Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz · x2 · 2026-05-20 08:17

US DOJ and FBI announce criminal charges against Raúl Castro (94) at Miami Freedom Tower ceremony on May 20 2026. Charges relate to 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown (4 killed, 3 Americans). Acting AG Todd Blanche + FBI Deputy Dir Raia headline event. Prosecution 30+ years in the making. Symbolic — no extradition treaty.

CRITICAL Cuban Officers Documented Issuing Death Threats to Prisoners (May 2026)
HR_VIOLATOR_DEATH_THREATS · Leonardo Suárez Rey · x1 · 2026-05-18 07:06

Prisoners Defenders documented Cuban military officers issuing death threats to political prisoners at Kilo 8 (Camagüey) and Guanajay. Officers: Major Reboso Pérez, Lt.Col. Guilarte Ramírez, Major Suárez Rey.

CRITICAL Cuba declares total fuel exhaustion 2026-05-14 — protests sweep Havana
INFRASTRUCTURE_INCIDENT · x3 · 2026-05-18 01:10

Cuba national power grid restored May 16, 2026 after 22h blackout. 65% territory blacked out May 14-15. Energy Minister confirmed "zero oil reserves." Antonio Guiteras (largest plant) remains offline. Scheduled blackouts persist. US offered $100M aid via Catholic Church — Cuba mulling. GAESA wind-down period through June 5; no confirmed future oil shipments.

CRITICAL DOJ Criminal Indictment of Raul Castro — unsealing May 20, 2026 Miami
REGIME_PERSON_SANCTIONED · x4 · 2026-05-17 06:00

DOJ seeking criminal indictment of former Cuban President/Defense Minister Raúl Castro (94) in Southern District of Florida for the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown (2 Cessnas, 4 killed, 3 US citizens). Indictment expected to unseal Wednesday May 20, 2026 at DOJ event at Miami Freedom Tower honoring victims. CIA Director Ratcliffe met Raulito (Castro grandson, key negotiator) + Interior Minister Álvarez Casas + Cuban intel chief in Havana May 14. Trump called Cuba "completely failed nation." Negotiations stalled — US demands Díaz-Canel removal, Cuba refuses.

CRITICAL Cuba acquires 300+ attack drones; regime discusses strikes on US assets
WEAPONS_ACQUISITION_US_DIRECTED · x1 · 2026-05-17

Axios (2026-05-17) reports a US intelligence assessment that Cuba has acquired 300+ military attack drones from Russia and Iran since 2023, with regime officials discussing potential strikes on Guantanamo Bay naval base, US military vessels, and Key West, FL. CIA Director Ratcliffe visited Havana 2026-05-14 to warn the regime against hostile acts. Approximately 5,000 Cuban troops are currently deployed in combat against Ukraine on Russia's side, reporting drone-warfare lessons back to Havana.

CRITICAL CIA Director SAM554 mission + F-5N overflight to Havana — coordinated US air outreach/pressure
US_DIPLOMATIC_AIR_OUTREACH · SAM554 · x4 · 2026-05-16

SAM554 (C-40B) landed HAV May 14 carrying CIA Dir Ratcliffe — first US intel chief Cuba visit on record. Met MININT Brig. Gen. Ramón 'Raulito' Romero Curbelo (grandson of Raúl Castro). Topics: SSOT list, political prisoners, intel cooperation. Outcome: Cuba accepted US $100M humanitarian aid offer (fuel/food/medicine via Catholic Church). F-5N Tiger II Havana overflight same day = coordinated air outreach signal. Cuba accepting US aid while UNIVERSAL Russian tanker remains stranded = diplomatic pivot indicator.

CRITICAL Mexico formalises no-oil stance — Cuba energy isolation tightens
INFRASTRUCTURE_INCIDENT · x2 · 2026-05-15 14:13

Cuba energy isolation deepens. Russian-donated crude exhausted early May; UNIVERSAL (Sovcomflot, 270K bbls diesel) drifting mid-Atlantic. Mexico's 6th 2026 aid ship explicitly NO OIL. On 2026-05-14 Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy declared Cuba "absolutely no fuel, oil or diesel." Sole inbound substitution: Chinese solar (1,000+ MW added in 12 months) + Mexican humanitarian aid (food/medicine/hygiene/solar panels).

CRITICAL Russian bomber inbound HAV coincides with Russian tanker reacquisition
VESSEL_AIR_HANDOFF · ANATOLY KOLODKIN · x1 · 2026-05-11 22:22

Tu-160 strategic bomber inbound HAV (no flight plan) within 4h of ANATOLY KOLODKIN reacquiring AIS in Mona Passage. Strong indicator of coordinated diplomatic/logistical event. Both observed in the same scan window.

CRITICAL Foreign mil aircraft loitered with transponder off
MIL_AIR_TRANSPONDER_DROP · CMU8888 · x1 · 2026-05-08 20:41

Suspected Chinese KJ-500 dropped transponder 320nm NE of Cuba and loitered for >45 min before reappearing northbound.

HIGH GDELT anomaly: PROTEST news-event volume spike
GDELT_PROTEST_ANOMALY · x1 · 2026-05-20T17:41

GDELT-derived ESTIMATE (not confirmed fact). Next-month PROTEST event volume projected via OLS linear extrapolation over the trailing 12-month window (1,812 events). Baseline 151/mo, current month 298 (z=+2.44, ANOMALY), trend=volatile. Estimate band 58-244 (mid 151). Confidence LOW from data density + series variance.

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo sa-scan-charger
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:11

Public repo https://github.com/yulioaj290/sa-scan-charger exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host nexus.prod.uci.cu (at tesstwo/src/main/jni/com_googlecode_leptonica_android/src/configure:13693). Value redacted: pwd=****REDACTED**** (len=7).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo nautapy
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:11

Public repo https://github.com/cccaballero/nautapy exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host nauta.com.cu (at test/test_protocol.py:8). Value redacted: PASSWORD=****REDACTED**** (len=18).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo nautapy
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:11

Public repo https://github.com/armandofcom/nautapy exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host nauta.com.cu (at test/test_protocol.py:8). Value redacted: PASSWORD=****REDACTED**** (len=18).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo plugin-enzona
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:11

Public repo https://github.com/brianmrdev/plugin-enzona exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host dipepremium.cu (at Orders_List.php:377). Value redacted: token=****REDACTED**** (len=46).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo calcular-precios-vps-etecsa
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:11

Public repo https://github.com/brianmrdev/calcular-precios-vps-etecsa exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host calcularvps.webdev.cu (at calcular_vps_etecsa/settings.py:24). Value redacted: SECRET_KEY=****REDACTED**** (len=66).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo ANtPlanner
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:10

Public repo https://github.com/UHCalendarTeam/ANtPlanner exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host admin.uh.cu (at CalDav_tests/DataLayerTests.cs:25). Value redacted: password=****REDACTED**** (len=9).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo solicitud_dieta
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:10

Public repo https://github.com/yandivd/solicitud_dieta exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host b.cu (at app/static/plugins/codemirror/mode/dockerfile/dockerfile.js:41). Value redacted: token=****REDACTED**** (len=7).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo GoLittlePorjects
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:07

Public repo https://github.com/rayniel95/GoLittlePorjects exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host people.weboo.matcom.uh.cu (at compact/TextCompact_files/jquery_004.js:1). Value redacted: token=****REDACTED**** (len=17).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo django-misclientes
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:07

Public repo https://github.com/dcruz1990/django-misclientes exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host nauta.cu (at .env-sample:2). Value redacted: SECRET_KEY=****REDACTED**** (len=39).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo QuantityEr
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:07

Public repo https://github.com/EStog/QuantityEr exposes a CREDENTIAL alongside state host uci.cu (at running/jupyterlab/testing limits.ipynb:9). Value redacted: token=****REDACTED**** (len=40).

HIGH State-infra secret leak in regime dev repo epidemic-classification-ml-project
REGIME_DEV_REPO_SECRET_LEAK · x1 · 2026-05-20T10:02

Public repo https://github.com/geeksLabTech/epidemic-classification-ml-project exposes a DB_CONNSTRING alongside state host www.onei.gob.cu (at test_simulationv2.py:18). Value redacted: mongodb://localhost:27017/.

HIGH GDELT_REGIME_THREAT_RHETORIC
GDELT_REGIME_THREAT_RHETORIC · x4 · 2026-05-20T03:08

27 GDELT articles in last 24h across 16 distinct publisher domains (abc.net.au, arabnews.com, ashingtonexaminer.com, attackofthefanboy.com, freemalaysiatoday.com, home.nzcity.co.nz, …). Top: Cuba is not a threat to the US , but invasion will create a bloodbath , warns president

HIGH GDELT_DOJ_INDICTMENT_NARRATIVE
GDELT_DOJ_INDICTMENT_NARRATIVE · x4 · 2026-05-20T03:08

5 GDELT articles in last 24h across 5 distinct publisher domains (cbsnews.com, independent.co.uk, niagarafallsreview.ca, nvdaily.com, stcatharinesstandard.ca). Top: The story of the 1996 shootdown that could lead to Raúl Castro indictment

HIGH GDELT_INFRA_CRISIS_REPORTING
GDELT_INFRA_CRISIS_REPORTING · x1 · 2026-05-20T03:08

6 GDELT articles in last 24h across 6 distinct publisher domains (baa.org, csufm.org, cubaheadlines.com, kacu.org, kgou.org, southcarolinapublicradio.org). Top: Cuba out of fuel and ready to defend itself

HIGH Crude sat-AIS hit 60min ago on dark hull (8d AIS gap)
SHADOW_FLEET_SAT_TRACKING · AKADEMIK GUBKIN · x1 · 2026-05-20T02:23

Sanctioned hull Crude (IMO 9842190) is AIS-dark for 8d but received a satellite-AIS position 60 minutes ago at East Asia. Surveillance-grade observation on shadow-fleet vessel; cross-reference with co-located hulls for STS candidates.

HIGH Oil sat-AIS hit 50min ago on dark hull (13d AIS gap)
SHADOW_FLEET_SAT_TRACKING · UNIVERSAL · x1 · 2026-05-19T10:42

Sanctioned hull Oil (IMO 9384306) is AIS-dark for 13d but received a satellite-AIS position 50 minutes ago at North West Atlantic Ocean. Surveillance-grade observation on shadow-fleet vessel; cross-reference with co-located hulls for STS candidates.

HIGH Oil sat-AIS hit 47min ago on dark hull (125d AIS gap)
SHADOW_FLEET_SAT_TRACKING · MARIA CRISTINA (ex-CARLOTA C) · x1 · 2026-05-19T10:42

Sanctioned hull Oil (IMO 9502453) is AIS-dark for 125d but received a satellite-AIS position 47 minutes ago at North West Atlantic Ocean. Surveillance-grade observation on shadow-fleet vessel; cross-reference with co-located hulls for STS candidates.

HIGH Oil sat-AIS hit 50min ago on dark hull (20d AIS gap)
SHADOW_FLEET_SAT_TRACKING · SANDINO · x1 · 2026-05-19T10:42

Sanctioned hull Oil (IMO 9441178) is AIS-dark for 20d but received a satellite-AIS position 50 minutes ago at Caribbean Sea. Surveillance-grade observation on shadow-fleet vessel; cross-reference with co-located hulls for STS candidates.

HIGH Havana Protests — 5+ Consecutive Nights (May 2026)
HAVANA_PROTESTS_ONGOING · x1 · 2026-05-18 07:06

Anti-government protests in Havana persisted for at least 5 consecutive nights in May 2026 amid acute fuel and power shortages. 1,260 political prisoners on record.

HIGH 1,260 Cuban Political Prisoners — Record High (May 2026)
POLITICAL_PRISONER_RECORD · x1 · 2026-05-18 07:06

Prisoners Defenders May 2026 report documents 1,260 Cuban political prisoners, a record high. Three new military HR violators staged (Reboso, Guilarte, Suárez Rey).

HIGH MQ-4C Triton recurring loiter near Cuban EEZ
UAV_PATROL_OBSERVED · MQ4C-USN-CUBA-ISR · x12 · 2026-05-18 01:10

US Navy MQ-4C Triton UAVs (BLKCAT5, BLKCAT6, callsigns) conducting recurring ~12-hour Cuba surveillance sorties from NAS Mayport, Jacksonville FL. Documented: BLKCAT6 caught live May 15 at 27.83N/-83.71W FL470; BLKCAT5 operated Apr 21 in Gulf of America FL47,000ft; BLKCAT6 night mission Apr 16-17 over Pinar del Rio/Santiago/near Havana. At least 4 documented Triton missions near Cuba in 2026. Part of Operation Southern Spear ($3B deployment). Pattern: Cuba ISR surge continues at high tempo.

HIGH Two unidentified tankers — Matanzas Bay approach (Cuba fuel crisis)
UNKNOWN_VESSEL_APPROACH · x2 · 2026-05-18 01:10

Live Mode-A sweep 2026-05-17 06:00 UTC: two satellite-only AIS contacts (positions 2-5 min old) at Matanzas Bay approach (23.06N/-81.54W and 23.05N/-81.54W). Both outside coastal AIS range. Context: Cuba declared total fuel exhaustion May 14 2026.

HIGH SANDINO — 19d AIS dark, actively moving 10kn in Caribbean (stealth evasion)
AIS_DARK_RENDEZVOUS · SANDINO · x1 · 2026-05-18 01:08

SANDINO (IMO 9441178, OFAC Cuba flag) AIS-dark 19 days but satellite captured it at 10.0kn in Caribbean, no declared destination. Last terrestrial: Cienfuegos Apr 19 no AIS. Draught 8.3m partially loaded. Cuba-flag tanker operating in stealth mode — likely undisclosed fuel transfer or delivery.

HIGH SOUTHCOM counter-narco kinetic tempo holds — DEA 1,418 lb cocaine seizure + JTF strikes
COUNTER_NARCO_TEMPO · x10 · 2026-05-17 06:00

Operation Southern Spear: 194 total killed in 58 strikes on 59 vessels as of May 8, 2026. Strikes May 4, 5, 8 confirmed via SOUTHCOM press releases. Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. JTF Southern Spear using robotics/autonomous systems.

HIGH SEA HORSE live AIS: East Mediterranean to Mersin Turkey — NOT Caribbean
SHADOW_FLEET_ROUTING_CORRECTION · SEA HORSE · x7 · 2026-05-17 06:00

Mode-A live AIS sweep 2026-05-17 confirmed SEA HORSE (IMO 9262584) in East Mediterranean routing to Mersin Turkey. Previous reports of Caribbean approach were incorrect. SHADOW_FLEET_ROUTING_CORRECTION: vessel is away from Cuba.

HIGH Military HR Violators Named — Prisoners Defenders 2026-05
HR_VIOLATOR_PROMOTED · x1 · 2026-05-17 05:10

Prisoners Defenders 2026-05 report names 3 active-duty military officers as direct perpetrators of political prisoner abuse: Maj. Reboso Perez, Lt.Col. Guilarte Ramirez, Maj. Suarez Rey. Automated module timed out; identified via Mode-A manual review. To be promoted as T3 HR violators.

HIGH New Air China MAD↔HAV B787-9 link surfaces on FR24 schedule
CHINA_STATE_AIR_LINK · x4 · 2026-05-16

Air China CA865 (B787-9) completed MAD→HAV service 2026-05-16, arriving 22:26 UTC. First Chinese state-carrier scheduled Cuba service confirmed live on FR24. New pattern: Air China now provides regular direct link between Madrid and Havana.

HIGH Cuba reactivates Cold War air defenses (S-75 / S-125) amid US ISR surge
CUBA_AIR_DEFENSE_REACTIVATION · x1 · 2026-05-15 14:13

Cuba's MINFAR has displayed reactivated S-75 Dvina (SA-2) and S-125 Pechora (SA-3) SAM batteries on official channels — the S-125 reportedly modernised with Belarus assistance per Militarnyi. Reactivation tracks US ISR surge (25+ flights since Feb 4), the Jan-2026 reposition of USS Iwo Jima + USS San Antonio north of Cuba, FLEX2026 Key West hybrid exercise (2026-04-24/30), and Trump's carrier-deployment rhetoric ("USS Abraham Lincoln… 100 m off the shore"). Coupled with the 2026-05-14 SAM554/F-5N day, this is a visible defensive-posture shift.

HIGH Recurring HAV↔CCS state shuttle (sanctioned Conviasa)
STATE_AIR_PARTNER_SHUTTLE · YV3001 · x2 · 2026-05-12 03:05

Conviasa YV3001 HAV-CCS rotation continues despite EO 14404 secondary-sanctions exposure for any FFI handling settlement; Cuban state-aircraft side (PLN001 Il-96) remains dependent on this corridor.

Maritime

VesselIMOFlagTypeRiskSanctioned
ADMIRAL GRIGOROVICH9774596RussiaMILITARYCRITICALYES — US/EU/UK
AKADEMIK GUBKIN9842190RussiaOILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
ANATOLY KOLODKIN9610808RussiaOILCRITICALYES — EU, UK (OFSI), US (OFAC)
AQUILA II9281152Panama (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
CAIMÁNCubaMILITARYCRITICALno
CAMILO CIENFUEGOSCubaMILITARYCRITICALno
DELFINCubaMILITARYCRITICALno
DEYNA9299903Mozambique (false flag / linked to Russia)OILCRITICALYES — France/EU
ENIGMAUnknownOILCRITICALYES — US/EU/UK
EQUALITYUnknown (Non-Cuban tricolor flag)OILCRITICALno
ESPERANZACubaOILCRITICALno
GRINCHRussia (false flag)OILCRITICALYES — EU/France
M SOPHIA9289477Panama (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
MARIA CRISTINA (ex-CARLOTA C)9502453CubaOILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
MARINERA (ex-BELLA 1)Russia (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
OLINAUnknown / False FlagOILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
PETION9295098PanamaOILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
SAGITTA9296822Marshall Islands (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA), EU, UK HMT
SANDINO9441178CubaOILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA)
SKIPPER (ex-ADISA)Guyanese (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (USA) - Previously under name ADISA
UNIVERSAL9384306RussiaOILCRITICALYES — US/UK/EU
VERONICA9256860Guyana (False Flag)OILCRITICALYES — OFAC (E.O. 13224 / PSB Lizing)
VILLA CLARACubaMILITARYCRITICALno
ALICIACubaOILHIGHno
ANTONIO MACEOCubaMILITARYHIGHno
BAHIA DE NIPECubaMILITARYHIGHno
CNS SILK ROAD ARKChinaMILITARYHIGHno
ETHERAGuinea (falsified)OILHIGHYES — EU/Belgium
EUGENIA GAS8813099Belize (formerly Liberian)OILHIGHno
GRANMACubaMILITARYHIGHno
JOSE MARTICubaMILITARYHIGHno
LPG C PASTORITA9034729CubaOILHIGHno
MARLIN AMMOLITECubaOILHIGHno
NICOS IV (NICOS I.V.)9103843Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesOILHIGHno
OCCIDENTECubaMILITARYHIGHno
OCEAN INTEGRITYCubaOILHIGHno
ORIENTECubaMILITARYHIGHno
PRIMULACubaOILHIGHno
RFS SOOBRAZITELNYRussiaMILITARYHIGHno
SANDINO (Coastal variant / YELNYA)RussiaOILHIGHno
SEA HORSE9262584Hong KongOILHIGHno
SIERRA MAESTRACubaMILITARYHIGHno
VILMACubaOILHIGHno
BELGIN SULTANTurkeyOILMEDIUMno
GAS EXELEROCubaOILMEDIUMno
GRETABelizeOILMEDIUMno
GUANTANAMOCubaMILITARYMEDIUMno
HABANACubaMILITARYMEDIUMno
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUDCubaMILITARYMEDIUMno
LPG EMILIACubaOILMEDIUMno
PINAR DEL RIOCubaMILITARYMEDIUMno
USAV WILSON WHARFUnited StatesMILITARYMEDIUMno
USS WICHITA (LCS-13)United StatesMILITARYMEDIUMno
LEMLANDUnknownOILLOWno
MEXICO HUMANITARIAN AID SHIP 6MexicoOILLOWno
SEABOARD GALAXY9970959USAOILLOWno
USNS LARAMIE (T-AO-203)United StatesMILITARYLOWno

Recent Movements

DateVesselTypePortDestAIS
2026-05-17SEA HORSETRANSITMersin TurkeyACTIVE
2026-05-17UNIDENTIFIED-TANKER-MAT-1UNKNOWN_APPROACHMatanzas BaySAT_ONLY
2026-05-17UNIDENTIFIED-TANKER-MAT-2UNKNOWN_APPROACHMatanzas BaySAT_ONLY
2026-05-17SANDINOAT_SEACaribbean Sea (AIS dark active)
2026-05-17DEYNAAT_SEASouth Africa (Cape Route)
2026-05-17ANATOLY KOLODKINAT_SEANorth Russia (Post-Cuba Return)
2026-05-16UNIVERSALDARKNW Atlantic OceanDARK
2026-05-16UNIVERSALDARKNW Atlantic (adrift)Unknown (Cuba/Trinidad divergence)DARK
2026-05-16SEA HORSETRANSITGibraltar/Valletta areaValletta Malta (est.)ACTIVE
2026-05-15SEA HORSETRANSITEast MediterraneanValletta MaltaACTIVE
2026-05-15UNIVERSALDARKNorth West AtlanticFOR ORDER / Cuba TBCDARK
2026-05-15NICOS IV (NICOS I.V.)TRANSITMarielINTERMITTENT
2026-05-15SEA HORSETRANSITValletta, MaltaACTIVE
2026-05-15NICOS IV (NICOS I.V.)ARRIVALMarielACTIVE
2026-05-12ANATOLY KOLODKINTRANSITMona Passage approachRussia (return) / pendingACTIVE
2026-05-12UNIVERSALDARKMid-Atlantic loiterUNDECLARED (suspected Cuba)DARK
2026-05-12SEA HORSETRANSITWest Africa / Trinidad-Tema corridorTema, Ghana / Gibraltar (per VF/MT)ACTIVE
2026-05-11SEA HORSETRANSITWest Africa (off Guinea coast)Gibraltar, GibraltarINTERMITTENT
2026-05-11DEYNATRANSITWest AfricaINTERMITTENT
2026-05-11ANATOLY KOLODKINANCHOREDNorth Russia (near Ust-Luga)ACTIVE
2026-05-11AKADEMIK GUBKINTRANSITEast Asia (Russian Far East)INTERMITTENT
2026-05-11EUGENIA GASANCHOREDGulf of MexicoAltamira, MexicoINTERMITTENT
2026-05-11MEXICO HUMANITARIAN AID SHIP 6TRANSITCuba (port TBD)Cuba
2026-05-10ANATOLY KOLODKINTRANSITNorth Russia (Polyarnyy area)ACTIVE
2026-05-09SEA HORSETRANSITWest Africa (off Guinea coast)GibraltarACTIVE
2026-05-09MARIA CRISTINA (ex-CARLOTA C)DARKNW Atlantic Ocean (last known)UnknownDARK
2026-05-09ESPERANZAANCHOREDCienfuegos AnchorageCienfuegosACTIVE
2026-05-09VILMAANCHOREDCienfuegos AnchorageCienfuegosACTIVE
2026-05-09LPG EMILIAANCHOREDHavana HarborFOR ORDERSACTIVE
2026-05-08ANATOLY KOLODKINTRANSITUst-Luga AnchorageFOR ORDERACTIVE

Air

Callsign / RegTypeOperatorCountryRiskSanctioned
AZS-RA78765Ilyushin Il-76TDAviacon ZitotransRussiaCRITICALYES
CMU8888Y-9 / KJ-500PLAN/PLAAFChinaCRITICALno
RFF7777Tu-160 BlackjackRussian Aerospace Forces (VKS)RussiaCRITICALno
V03492 / V03493Airbus A340-600Conviasa (Venezuela state carrier)VenezuelaHIGHYES
CA865Boeing 787-9 DreamlinerAir China (Chinese flag carrier)ChinaHIGHno
RC135V-USAF-CUBA-ISRRC-135V Rivet JointUSAFUnited StatesHIGHno
MQ4C-USN-CUBA-ISRMQ-4C TritonUS NavyUnited StatesHIGHno
RA-96005Il-96-300PURussia Special Flight SquadronRussiaHIGHYES
BLKCAT6MQ-4C Triton (Northrop Grumman RQ-4/Triton family, type Q4)US Navy (NAS Jacksonville / Mayport)United StatesHIGHno
YV3001B737-300ConviasaVenezuelaHIGHYES
PLN001Il-96-300Cubana de AviaciónCubaMEDIUMno
P8A-USN-CUBA-ISRP-8A PoseidonUS NavyUnited StatesMEDIUMno
SAM554Boeing C-40B Clipper (737-700 mil)USAF — Special Air Mission, 89th Airlift Wing (Joint Base Andrews)United StatesMEDIUMno
5R2233Boeing 737-300Rutaca AirlinesVenezuelaMEDIUMno
E2D-USN-CUBA-AEWE-2D Advanced HawkeyeUS NavyUnited StatesMEDIUMno
F5N-USN-CUBA-FLYBYF-5N Tiger IIUS Navy (TOPGUN/NSAWC aggressor cadre)United StatesMEDIUMno
RCH842C-17 Globemaster IIIUSAFUnited StatesLOWno

Recent Air Movements

TimeCallsignTypeAirportRoute
2026-05-20 18:50CA865ARRIVALJosé Martí InternationalMAD → HAV
2026-05-20 15:30V03492ARRIVALJosé Martí InternationalCCS → HAV
2026-05-20 03:08LRC670OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08DAL1513OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08FFT9518OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08DAL2410OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08N551FPOVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08N9544HOVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL3308OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08N263JMOVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08JBU547OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL3327OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08UAL1961OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08SWA4071OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08BPX203OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL2111OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL2965OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08DAL2187OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL2386OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08UAL1374OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08N810FSOVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08EJA467OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08DAL2435OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08AAL1879OVERFLIGHT
2026-05-20 03:08FFT1750OVERFLIGHT

Sanctions Events

2026-05-20 · DESIGNATION · Raúl Castro Ruz · DOJ/FBI (United States)

Raúl Castro (94) indicted by US DOJ at Miami Freedom Tower ceremony on 2026-05-20. Charges for ordering 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft in international airspace, killing 4 (3 Americans). Acting AG Blanche + FBI Dep Dir Raia. Symbolic — no extradition treaty.

↗ source
2026-05-20 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuba National Power Grid

Cuba 2026-05-20: Protests ongoing in 12+ Havana municipalities. Blackouts 20-22h/day. Power generation 636 MW vs 2,420 MW demand. Summer forecast as worst unrest since 11J (July 2021). Cuba declared total fuel exhaustion May 14.

↗ source
2026-05-19 · FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT · Cuban state press (cubadebate.cu) · OSINT / state press

[FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT] Cubadebate — foreign-mil + cuba + military keyword. Source: cubadebate.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: Cuba dreads of possible US invasion amid energy blockade • FRANCE 24 English

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: Mosca ribadisce il suo «sostegno incondizionato» a Cuba e attacca l'embargo USA: «Cinica manifestazione della dottrina Monroe»

↗ source
2026-05-18 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state press (presidencia.gob.cu) · OSINT / state press

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Inicio | Presidencia y Gobierno de la República de Cuba — infrastructure keyword. Source: presidencia.gob.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (granma.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Mundo › Granma - Órgano oficial del PCC — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: granma.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (granma.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Opinión › Granma - Órgano oficial del PCC — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: granma.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (granma.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Salud › Granma - Órgano oficial del PCC — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: granma.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (cubadebate.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Cubadebate — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: cubadebate.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (cubadebate.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Cubadebate — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: cubadebate.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-18 · POLICY_CHANGE · Cuban state press (cubadebate.cu) · OSINT / state press

[POLICY_CHANGE] Cubadebate — policy / counter-sanctions keyword. Source: cubadebate.cu via Wayback snapshot.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT · Cuban state TV (Mesa Redonda) · OSINT / state TV captions

[FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT] Death and life in El Morrillo — foreign-mil + cuba + military keyword. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state TV (Mesa Redonda) · OSINT / state TV captions

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Fragmento del discurso de Ernesto (Che) Guevara en homenaje Antonio Guiterras — infrastructure keyword. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT · Cuban state TV (Cubavision Internacional) · OSINT / state TV captions

[FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT] Cuba News I (May 15, 2026) — foreign-mil + cuba + military keyword. Source: Cubavision Internacional YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: Protestas en Cuba: La Habana sin luz por apagón general histórico

↗ source
2026-05-17 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: EE. UU. contempla la posible imputación de Raúl Castro | The New York Times

↗ source
2026-05-17 · WEAPONS_ACQUISITION

Axios reports US intelligence assessment that Cuba has acquired 300+ military attack drones from Russia and Iran since 2023; regime officials internally discussed potential strikes on Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels, and Key West.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · FOREIGN_COMBAT

Approximately 5,000 Cuban troops are currently deployed in combat against Ukraine on Russia's side. Ukrainian HUR has captured / interrogated multiple Cuban combatants; Kyiv reports hundreds of Cuban KIA. Combatants feed drone-warfare and trench-combat lessons back to Havana.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · PRESS_ALERT · DroneXL · Cuba feed

[DroneXL · Cuba] Cuba Now Holds 300 Russian And Iranian Military Drones Within 90 Miles Of Key West, U.S. Intelligence Tells Axios — Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran since 2023, and Cuban military officials have begun discussing plans to use them against the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels, and possibly Key West, according to classified U.S. intelligence shared with Axios by a senior Trump administration official Sunday […]

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state TV (Mesa Redonda) · OSINT / state TV captions

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Manos jóvenes y experimentadas impulsan la ley de Soberanía Alimentaria en Santiago de Cuba — infrastructure keyword. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: Cuba grid collapse: The situation is growing more dire, experts say

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: According to a US report, Cuba is considering drone attacks on US targets. 🗣️ Escalation risks climb when fuel and power shortages meet foreign drone tech, could a regional blackout become a global fl

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: Cuba grid collapse: The situation is growing more dire, experts say

↗ source
2026-05-17 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: FWI: The US invades Cuba over its drone fleet

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: Ziggy's tats

↗ source
2026-05-17 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: What is the point of sanctions?

↗ source
2026-05-17 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE

Reddit signal — infrastructure / fuel / blackout: Cuba grid collapse: The situation is growing more dire, experts say

↗ source
2026-05-17 · POLICY_CHANGE

Reddit signal — sanctions / OFAC / policy: THE BRUTALITY OF THE CASTRO REGIME (Or a rant about how fucking asinine American anti-Castroism is)

↗ source
2026-05-16 · FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT · Air China CA865 (B787-9) — NEW MAD↔HAV state-carrier link

Air China CA865 MAD→HAV Boeing 787-9 scheduled 2026-05-16 18:50 local (FR24 HAV arrivals board). First Chinese flag-carrier widebody link to HAV in this registry. Madrid is likely tag-stop / 5th-freedom. Significant against backdrop of Chinese solar financing for Cuba (CNN 2026-05-13) and CNS Silk Road Ark Caribbean deployment. China-Cuba deepening across maritime + air + energy.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · MILITARY_ACTIVITY · Cuba · Cuba Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Cuban envoy warns Cuba preparing for possible US invasion amid stalled negotiations. Cuba rejects removal of Diaz-Canel as negotiating condition. US demands: prisoner release, Starlink access, compensation for confiscated assets. Cuba demands: end EO 14404 energy blockade. US-Cuba talks described as very preliminary.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · POLICY_CHANGE · OFAC/US Treasury

OFAC General License 134B expired 2026-05-16 at 12:01 a.m. EDT. GL 134B had authorized limited transactions involving Russian-origin crude and petroleum products loaded before April 17, 2026. Its expiration closes the last wind-down window for Russian oil to Cuba. UNIVERSAL (IMO 9384306, ~270K bbls diesel) is now operating in a full-prohibition environment with no GL coverage. Any Cuba delivery now constitutes a primary OFAC violation. GAESA wind-down GL expires June 5 2026.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuba National Grid

Cuba national power grid RESTORED May 16 after 22h blackout (65% territory affected May 14-15). Oil reserves exhausted per Energy Minister de la O Levy. Antonio Guiteras (largest plant) remains offline. Scheduled blackouts persist. Cuba considering US $100M aid offer via Catholic Church. Source: AFP/AP/Al Jazeera 2026-05-16

↗ source
2026-05-16 · POLICY_CHANGE

Trump admin renewed $100M humanitarian aid offer to Cuba, distributed via Catholic Church. Cuba mulling: insists aid must cover fuel/food/medicine. CIA Ratcliffe May 14 delivered terms: meaningful reforms required. Díaz-Canel red line: no political concessions, will not resign. Negotiations stalled — US demands Díaz-Canel removal. Trump: Cuba "completely failed nation." Source: CBS News/Al Jazeera/US News 2026-05-16

↗ source
2026-05-16 · MILITARY_ACTIVITY

Cuba declared 2026 "Year of Defense Preparation." Civilian military drills with rifles, drones, anti-tank mines intensified. Envoy Lianys Torres Rivera: Cuba bracing for US invasion. FM Bruno Rodríguez: any US action would cause "true humanitarian catastrophe, a bloodbath." Díaz-Canel to NBC: "if we need to die, we will die." Cuba UN envoy Soberón Guzmán declared readiness for military response. Trump: Cuba must "come to us." Source: The Hill/Al Jazeera/Axios 2026-05-16

↗ source
2026-05-16 · UNKNOWN_CONTACT

Mode C scheduled run 1618UTC — no browser connected, live AIS maps unreachable from sandbox. MGR fleet (CAMILO CIENFUEGOS, VILLA CLARA, ORIENTE, etc.) positions not live-verified this scan cycle. WebSearch fallback used for all maritime/air intelligence. Mode A available for interactive deep-dive. Source: scan methodology 2026-05-16 1620UTC

2026-05-16 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state TV (Mesa Redonda) · OSINT / state TV captions

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Fuel shortages are the main cause of blackouts in Cuba — infrastructure keyword. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state TV (Mesa Redonda) · OSINT / state TV captions

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Round Table, Petroleum Research Center: Bets on energy sovereignty — infrastructure keyword. Source: Mesa Redonda YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT · Cuban state TV (Cubavision Internacional) · OSINT / state TV captions

[FOREIGN_MILITARY_VISIT] Cuba Noticias Fin de Semana II (16 de mayo de 2026) — foreign-mil + cuba + military keyword. Source: Cubavision Internacional YouTube captions.

↗ source
2026-05-16 · INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE · Cuban state TV (Cubavision Internacional) · OSINT / state TV captions

[INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE] Cuba Noticias Fin de Semana I (16 de mayo de 2026) — infrastructure keyword. Source: Cubavision Internacional YouTube captions.

↗ source

Persons & Human Rights

NameTierPositionRiskFlags
Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez ParrillaT1Minister of Foreign Affairs (MINREX); Politburo memberHIGH
Esteban Lazo HernándezT1President of the National Assembly of People's Power; member of the PolitburoHIGHHR-VIOLATOR
Fidel Alejandro Castro RuzT1Founder of the Cuban Communist regime; deceased 25 November 2016CRITICALHR-VIOLATOR CASTRO DECEASED
Lázaro Alberto Álvarez CasasT1Minister of the Interior (MININT)CRITICALHR-VIOLATOR SANCTIONED
Manuel Marrero CruzT1Prime Minister of Cuba; Politburo memberCRITICALHR-VIOLATOR
Maricela Sosa RaveloT1tribunal officer (Tribunal)CRITICALHR-VIOLATOR
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel BermúdezT1First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba; President of the RepublicCRITICALHR-VIOLATOR
Ramiro Valdés MenéndezT1Vice President of the Council of Ministers; Comandante de la RevoluciónHIGH
Raúl Modesto Castro RuzT1Retired General; former First Secretary of the PCC; member of the PolitburoCRITICALHR-VIOLATOR SANCTIONED CASTRO
Roberto Tomás Morales OjedaT1PCC Politburo, Secretary of OrganizationHIGHHR-VIOLATOR SANCTIONED
Rubén Remigio FerroT1tribunal officer (Tribunal)CRITICALHR-VIOLATOR
Salvador Antonio Valdés MesaT1Vice President of Cuba; Politburo memberHIGH
Álvaro López MieraT1Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces (MINFAR); General de Cuerpo de EjércitoCRITICALHR-VIOLATOR SANCTIONED
Abelardo JIMENEZ GONZALEZT2-0-CRITICALSANCTIONED
Alejandro Castro EspínT2Colonel; reportedly senior figure in regime intelligence and security coordinationHIGHHR-VIOLATOR SANCTIONED CASTRO
Andres Laureano GONZALEZ BRITOT2Chief, Central ArmyCRITICALSANCTIONED
Ania Guillermina LASTRES MORERAT2-0-CRITICALSANCTIONED
Betancourt LeyvaT2juezMEDIUMHR-VIOLATOR
Eddy Manuel SIERRA ARIAST2Deputy Director, Policia Nacional RevolucionariaCRITICALSANCTIONED
Eugenio Armando RABILERO AGUILERAT2-0-CRITICALSANCTIONED
Gladys María Padrón CanalsT2juez (Tribunal)MEDIUMHR-VIOLATOR
Guillermo Cordero MonduyT2teniente coronelHIGHHR-VIOLATOR
Homero Acosta ÁlvarezT2Secretary of the Council of StateMEDIUM
Hugo Liens MartínezT2Jueza PonenteMEDIUMHR-VIOLATOR
Humberto Garcés TasséT2jefe de Orden InteriorHIGHHR-VIOLATOR
Inés María Chapman WaughT2Deputy Prime Minister; head of National Institute of Hydraulic Resources (former)MEDIUM
Irina Díaz DelisT2Jueza PonenteMEDIUMHR-VIOLATOR
Iris González MartínT2juez (Tribunal)MEDIUMHR-VIOLATOR
Jose Miguel GOMEZ DEL VALLINT2-0-CRITICALSANCTIONED
Joselín SánchezT2magistrado (Tribunal)HIGHHR-VIOLATOR

Person Sanctions

Vicente DE LA O LEVY · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 25 Apr 1962; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Rosabel GAMON VERDE · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 09 Feb 1973; POB Havana, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Female.

↗ source
Raul VILLAR KESSELL · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 04 Aug 1965; POB Bahia Honda, Artemisa Province, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Juan Esteban LAZO HERNANDEZ · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 26 Feb 1944; POB Jovellanos, Provincia de Matanzas, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Jose Miguel GOMEZ DEL VALLIN · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 06 Aug 1960; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Eugenio Armando RABILERO AGUILERA · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-19

DOB 06 Nov 1964; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Álvaro LOPEZ MIERA · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 26 Dec 1943; POB Havana, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja · OFAC · CUBA · 2026-05-16

Head of GAESA, the Cuban military's economic holding company; designated for ties to Cuban regime repression and economic control apparatus.

↗ source
Romarico Vidal SOTOMAYOR GARCIA · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 04 Nov 1938; POB Bartolome Maso, Granma, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Roberto LEGRA SOTOLONGO · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 1955; POB Baracoa, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male; Deputy Chief of the General Staff Revolutionary Armed Forces and Chief of the Directorate of Operations of the FAR.

↗ source
Pedro Orlando MARTINEZ FERNANDEZ · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 1971 to 1973; nationality Cuba; Gender Male.

↗ source
Oscar Alejandro CALLEJAS VALCARCE · OFAC · GLOMAG] [CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-16

DOB 19 Sep 1957; POB Havana, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male; Passport A006951 (Cuba) expires 18 Jul 2027; National ID No. 57091910348 (Cuba); Linked To: POLICIA NACIONAL REVOLUCIONARIA.

↗ source
Eddy Manuel SIERRA ARIAS · OFAC · GLOMAG] [CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-16

DOB 03 Sep 1971; POB Holguin, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male; Passport A008237 (Cuba) expires 20 Apr 2027; National ID No. 71090325982 (Cuba); Linked To: POLICIA NACIONAL REVOLUCIONARIA.

↗ source
Ania Guillermina LASTRES MORERA · OFAC · CUBA-EO14404 · 2026-05-16

DOB 19 Aug 1962; POB Marianao, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Female.

↗ source
Andres Laureano GONZALEZ BRITO · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 04 Jul 1954; POB Barajagua, Las Villas, Cuba; alt. POB Barajagua, Cienfuegos, Cuba; nationality Cuba; Gender Male; Chief, Central Army.

↗ source
Abelardo JIMENEZ GONZALEZ · OFAC · GLOMAG · 2026-05-16

DOB 22 Feb 1952; nationality Cuba; Gender Male; National ID No. 52022201646 (Cuba).

↗ source
Joaquín Quintas Solá · OPENSANCTIONS · CUBA

OpenSanctions consolidated designation

↗ source
Eugenio Armando RABILERO AGUILERA · OPENSANCTIONS · CUBA

OpenSanctions consolidated designation

↗ source
Roberto Tomás Morales Ojeda · OPENSANCTIONS · CUBA

OpenSanctions consolidated designation

↗ source
Raul VILLAR KESSELL · OPENSANCTIONS · CUBA

OpenSanctions consolidated designation

↗ source

Recent Person Events

2026-05-19 · HR_VIOLATION · Eduardo Delgado Rodriguez · HR-VIOLATOR

Apagones, policías y calles que arden en Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-19 · HR_VIOLATION · Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila · HR-VIOLATOR

Apagones, policías y calles que arden en Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-19 · HR_VIOLATION · Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez · HR-VIOLATOR

Apagones, policías y calles que arden en Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-19 · HR_VIOLATION · Julio César Cancio Ferrer · HR-VIOLATOR

Desde 1959: ascendente y sostenida restricción de garantías y protección que brindaba el Habeas Corpus a los ciudadanos cubanos

↗ source
2026-05-19 · HR_VIOLATION · Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz · HR-VIOLATOR

Desde 1959: ascendente y sostenida restricción de garantías y protección que brindaba el Habeas Corpus a los ciudadanos cubanos

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Mario Díaz-Balart · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · José Miguel Gómez · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Mayra Arevich Marín · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Joaquín Quintas Solá · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Roberto Tomás Morales Ojeda · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Esteban Lazo Hernández · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-18 · HR_VIOLATION · Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez · HR-VIOLATOR

Últimas noticias de las protestas en Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-16 · HR_VIOLATION · Francisco Lafont Pérez · HR-VIOLATOR

Acusación contra Raúl Castro: El deshielo de una causa tardía con 20 de mayo en Miami

↗ source
2026-05-16 · HR_VIOLATION · Manuel Marrero Cruz · HR-VIOLATOR

La columna de Fernández Era: Modernización

↗ source
2026-05-16 · HR_VIOLATION · Rubén Martínez Puente · HR-VIOLATOR

Acusación contra Raúl Castro: El deshielo de una causa tardía con 20 de mayo en Miami

↗ source
2026-05-16 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro · HR-VIOLATOR

Acusación contra Raúl Castro: El deshielo de una causa tardía con 20 de mayo en Miami

↗ source
2026-05-16 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz · HR-VIOLATOR

Acusación contra Raúl Castro: El deshielo de una causa tardía con 20 de mayo en Miami

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro · HR-VIOLATOR

Director de la CIA viaja a La Habana y entrega mensaje personal de Trump a los Castro

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas · HR-VIOLATOR

Director de la CIA viaja a La Habana y entrega mensaje personal de Trump a los Castro

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz · HR-VIOLATOR

Director de la CIA viaja a La Habana y entrega mensaje personal de Trump a los Castro

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez · HR-VIOLATOR

Director de la CIA viaja a La Habana y entrega mensaje personal de Trump a los Castro

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Carlos Fernandez de Cossio · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

↗ source
2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

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2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Alejandro Castro Espín · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

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2026-05-15 · HR_VIOLATION · Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz · HR-VIOLATOR

Noticias de la negociación de Donald Trump con Cuba

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GDELT Forecasts & Anomalies

Statistical estimate only — these are model-derived projections from GDELT event counts, not confirmed intelligence. Treat ranges (low/mid/high) as indicative; anomaly flags mark statistically unusual deviations, not verified events.
ThemeTrendLowMidHighConf.Anomaly
PROTESTvolatile58.07151243.93LOWANOMALY (z=2.44)
DIPLOMACYstable-5.07-4.07-3.07MEDANOMALY (z=-2.15)
SANCTIONS_PRESSUREvolatile69.06250.33431.61LOWANOMALY (z=2.56)
MILITARY_CONFLICTrising2769.823607.354444.88MED—
MILITARY_CONFLICTstable-5.66-4.66-3.66MED—
MILITARY_CONFLICTstable0.9511MED—
PROTESTstable-5.92-4.92-3.92MED—
PROTESTstable0.9511MED—
REPRESSIONstable789.17946.951104.72HIGH—
REPRESSIONstable-6.81-5.81-4.81HIGH—
DIPLOMACYrising17053.9921771.8026489.60MED—
SANCTIONS_PRESSUREstable-5.21-4.21-3.21LOW—
FOREIGN_RUSSIAvolatile73.61476.25878.89LOW—
FOREIGN_RUSSIAstable-6.40-5.40-4.40LOW—
FOREIGN_CHINAstable159.69281.78403.88MED—
FOREIGN_CHINAfalling-9.32-7.29-5.26MED—
FOREIGN_IRANvolatile0137.42310.71LOW—
FOREIGN_IRANstable-7.87-6.09-4.32LOW—
MIGRATIONfalling01.1245.23MED—
MIGRATIONstable-5.94-4.80-3.65MED—
ENERGYvolatile0.7017.2533.80LOW—
ENERGYstable-5.58-3.79-2.00LOW—
PROTEST · ols_linear_extrapolation+zscore_anomaly · 2025-05..2026-04 (12 mo), current=2026-05

GDELT-derived ESTIMATE (not confirmed fact). Next-month PROTEST event volume projected via OLS linear extrapolation over the trailing 12-month window (1,812 events). Baseline 151/mo, current month 298 (z=+2.44, ANOMALY), trend=volatile. Estimate band 58-244 (mid 151). Confidence LOW from data density + series variance.

DIPLOMACY · ols_linear_extrapolation+zscore_anomaly · 2025-05..2026-04 (12 mo), current=2026-05

GDELT-derived ESTIMATE (not confirmed fact). Next-month average TONE for DIPLOMACY (GDELT -100..+100 scale) projected by OLS over the trailing 12 months. Baseline tone -2.74, current -3.81 (z=-2.15, ANOMALY), trend=stable. Estimate band -5.07..-3.07 (mid -4.07). Confidence MED. Tone is a sentiment proxy, not an event count — interpret directionally.

SANCTIONS_PRESSURE · ols_linear_extrapolation+zscore_anomaly · 2025-05..2026-04 (12 mo), current=2026-05

GDELT-derived ESTIMATE (not confirmed fact). Next-month SANCTIONS_PRESSURE event volume projected via OLS linear extrapolation over the trailing 12-month window (3,004 events). Baseline 250/mo, current month 495 (z=+2.56, ANOMALY), trend=volatile. Estimate band 69-432 (mid 250). Confidence LOW from data density + series variance. Cross-ref: this GDELT estimate can backstop the low-intel mil_forecasts.THREAT_PROBABILITY field (not overwritten).